2022 photovoltaic industry report: leading production expansion accelerates
- Overview of the development of photovoltaic industry
- The market demand is strong and the prosperity is improving
- Opportunities for photovoltaic equipment
- The development of silicon wafers to large size and thin slices
- Battery technology TOP Con and HJT will become mainstream
- The trend of ultra-high power photovoltaic modules
- Inverter: The market share of string type is rising rapidly
- Analysis of photovoltaic industry chain
- Summary and outlook
The prosperity of the photovoltaic industry is improving, and the expansion of leading production is accelerated. From the perspective of demand, my country’s newly installed photovoltaic capacity will increase by 13.9% year-on-year in 2021, and the newly installed capacity in the first half of 2022 will increase by 137% year-on-year.
The industry demand continues to be strong. The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a new round of large-scale production capacity deployment. The advantage aggregation effect of leading companies is increasingly apparent, and the market concentration is continuously increasing.
Overview of the development of photovoltaic industry
The market demand is strong and the prosperity is improving
Photovoltaic power generation refers to a technology that uses solar cells to directly convert light energy into electrical energy. The power generation system is mainly composed of solar panels (components), controllers and inverters.
From 2011 to 2013, the growth rate of the world photovoltaic industry market slowed down, but it still showed an upward trend in general. Over the past decade, China’s photovoltaic installations have grown larger and larger in photovoltaic industry.
In 2021, China’s newly installed photovoltaic capacity will reach 54.88GW, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, and the cumulative installed capacity will exceed 300GW. Among them, the output of photovoltaic modules, polysilicon output, newly installed capacity, and cumulative installed capacity ranked first in the world for 15 consecutive years, 11 years, 9 years, and 7 years, respectively.
Photovoltaic modules technology is becoming more and more mature in China currently. And there are many outstanding manufacturers around the world. If you want to know more about it, the photovoltaic modules manufacturers article is here for you.
According to data, in the first half of 2022, China’s newly installed photovoltaic capacity was 30.88GW, a year-on-year increase of 137%. During this period, China’s export volume of photovoltaic modules was 83.8GW, a year-on-year increase of 90%, reflecting the continued strong demand for the photovoltaic industry and a favorable climate.
It is estimated that by 2025, the world’s newly installed photovoltaic industry capacity will reach 270GW-330GW, which is more than twice the current demand.
Opportunities for photovoltaic equipment
From the perspective of the entire photovoltaic industry chain, silicon wafers are developing in the direction of large size and thinning, and cells are gradually developing in the direction of high-efficiency cells. TOPCon and HJT will gradually become mainstream in the future, and ultra-high power is an inevitable trend in the development of the photovoltaic industry of modules.
The advancement of photovoltaic industry technology will drive the replacement of the entire production line equipment, resulting in a larger space for equipment investment.
The development of silicon wafers to large size and thin slices
With the continuous development of the photovoltaic industry, the production scale of solar cells has steadily increased, driving the steady growth of the demand of photovoltaic industry for upstream silicon wafers.
From the perspective of conversion efficiency, the conversion efficiency of monocrystalline silicon cell modules is generally higher than that of polycrystalline silicon. With the advancement of monocrystalline crystal pulling technology and the industrialization of diamond wire slicing technology, the cost of monocrystalline silicon wafers has dropped significantly, making monocrystalline silicon cell modules. market share increased rapidly.
The increase in the size of silicon wafers can reduce the cost of silicon wafers, cells, modules, BOS (photovoltaic balance system) and other multi-link costs, and at the same time can directly increase the power of modules, thereby enhancing the product competitiveness of large-scale modules.
In addition, the thickness of the silicon wafer has an impact on the automation, yield, and conversion efficiency of the cell. Thinning is conducive to reducing silicon consumption and silicon wafer cost, but it will affect the fragmentation rate. At present, the slicing process can fully meet the needs of thinning, but the thickness of silicon wafers must also meet the needs of downstream cell and component manufacturing.
According to data, in 2021, there will be various sizes of silicon wafers on the market, including 156.75mm, 157mm, 158.75mm, 166mm, 182mm, 210mm, etc., and each will occupy a certain market share.
Battery technology TOP Con and HJT will become mainstream
With lower manufacturing costs and continuously improving cell conversion efficiency, the single crystal PERC technology route has become the mainstream product of photovoltaic cells at present. In 2021, with the continuous release of new production capacity of PERC cells, the market share of PERC cells will further increase to 91.2%.
In terms of conversion efficiency, P-type cells are gradually approaching the limit, and the conversion efficiency and production capacity of N-type cells with higher limit efficiency (HJT and TOP Con) are rapidly increasing.
As the conversion efficiency of PERC cells is gradually approaching the limit, under the influence of various factors such as policy, market and technology, HJT cells are expected to become the mainstream of the next generation due to the advantages of high conversion efficiency, low decay rate, few process steps and clear cost reduction route.
The essence of HJT and TOP Con is to form a passivation structure by depositing a silicon-based thin film on crystalline silicon in the cell, which can reduce the recombination of carriers during the photoelectric conversion process and increase the lifetime of carriers, thereby Improve the conversion efficiency of the battery.
At present, although the mass production scale of HJT and TOP Con is far behind that of PERC, as the next-generation mainstream battery technology, the development speed is extremely fast.
The trend of ultra-high power photovoltaic modules
From the perspective of products, whether silicon wafer cells or photovoltaic modules, their power and efficiency will achieve a qualitative leap in 2021. At present, most module companies have released products of more than 600W, and a few companies have even released modules of more than 700W. The focus of enterprise production capacity layout is gradually tilted towards ultra-high power.
In terms of size components, large-size components can effectively reduce the unit cost of the system link, so their market share has rapidly increased. According to CPIA data, in 2021, the combined market share of 182mm and 210mm silicon wafers will reach 45%. It is expected that by 2025, the market share of 182mm and 210mm silicon wafer size components will rapidly increase to more than 90%.
Inverter: The market share of string type is rising rapidly
As the only smart device in the photovoltaic industry system that has multiple digital functions and is directly connected to the power grid, the photovoltaic industry of inverter is the core component of the photovoltaic power generation system.
In 2016, the inverters on the market were dominated by centralized inverters, with a market share of more than 60%. The market share of inverters in centralized photovoltaic power plants continues to rise, gradually replacing centralized inverters.
Analysis of photovoltaic industry chain
The upstream is the collection of crystalline silicon raw materials and the processing and production of silicon rods, silicon ingots and silicon wafers.
In 2018 and 2019, the polysilicon industry was oversupplied and the overall capacity utilization rate was relatively low. By 2021, the supply and demand of silicon materials will be relatively tight. With the continuous rise of upstream silicon materials prices, downstream demand will be suppressed to a certain extent.
In 2022, the price of polysilicon material will break through 300RMB/kg, and the rising trend is obvious. The relative demand for silicon material is still tight, but with the successive launch of new production capacity of silicon material, the current photovoltaic industry demand is expected to usher in a high boom cycle.
The concentration of photovoltaic cells and modules in the midstream will increase. The midstream is the production of photovoltaic cells and photovoltaic cell modules. Let’s see what factories are on the list of top 10 photovoltaic cell manufacturers in China.
In 2021, the price of silicon material will continue to rise, which will put a certain pressure on the demand for installed capacity of downstream power plants. Large-scale high-power modules will gradually become the mainstream, and the industrialization of N-type batteries will accelerate.
In the battery sector, the profitability of the company will be gradually restored in 2022, the industrialization process of N-type batteries will be accelerated, the production capacity of TOP Con will be gradually implemented and the downstream bid-winning contract will be obtained.
In the first half of 2022, the cumulative bidding for photovoltaic power station projects in China reached about 93.2GW. However, due to the high price of components and less actual supply, the demand for components in China will explode in the second half of the year.
Downstream is the integration and operation of the photovoltaic power plant system and, in addition, inverter units. Under the dual carbon goal, China’s photovoltaic power generation has entered a stage of rapid and healthy development of large-scale, high-proportion, and high-quality.
According to data, as of the end of the first half of 2022, 30.88GW of new photovoltaic industry of power generation was connected to the grid, a year-on-year increase of 137.4%. It is estimated that 108GW of new photovoltaic industry of power generation will be connected to the grid in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 95.9% over the actual grid-connected capacity of the previous year.
Summary and outlook
Technological iterations are accelerating, and photovoltaic industry equipment is facing opportunities. Photovoltaic power generation is about to break away from the dependence on subsidies. Under the market requirements of cost reduction and efficiency increase, photovoltaic industry technology is continuously upgraded and iterated.
For example, silicon wafers are developing in the direction of large size and thinning, and cells are gradually developing in the direction of high-efficiency cells TOPCon and HJT. , Photovoltaic modules are gradually moving towards ultra-high power, and the advancement of industrial technology will drive the replacement of the entire photovoltaic industry production line equipment, resulting in a larger space for equipment investment.
The overall score of silicon wafer enterprises is generally high. Silicon wafer companies generally have high scores in market value management, revenue scale, and profitability. Photovoltaic processing equipment and inverter companies have outstanding performance in terms of profitability, R&D and innovation investment.
And abrasives companies due to fierce competition It is generally faced with a business situation of poor revenue growth and net profit losses. The investment in research and development of photovoltaic industry processing equipment is high. The photovoltaic industry has entered a stage of rapid development, and technological progress has accelerated to promote industrial upgrading.